Rates of change of pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters are diagnostic of multiple system atrophy of the cerebellar type

Definitive diagnosis of multiple system atrophy of the cerebellar type (MSA-C) is challenging. We hypothesized that rates of change of pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters on MRI would be unique to MSA-C and serve as diagnostic biomarkers. We defined the normative data for anterior-posterior pons and transverse middle cerebellar peduncle diameters on brain MRI in healthy controls, performed diameter-volume correlations and measured intra- and inter-rater reliability. We studied an Exploratory cohort (2002-2014) of 88 MSA-C and 78 other cerebellar ataxia patients, and a Validation cohort (2015-2021) of 49 MSA-C, 13 multiple system atrophy of the parkinsonian type (MSA-P), 99 other cerebellar ataxia patients and 314 non-ataxia patients. We measured anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters on baseline and subsequent MRIs, and correlated results with Brief Ataxia Rating Scale scores. We assessed midbrain:pons and middle cerebellar peduncle:pons ratios over time. The normative anterior-posterior pons diameter was 23.6 ± 1.6 mm, and middle cerebellar peduncle diameter 16.4 ± 1.4 mm. Pons diameter correlated with volume, r = 0.94, P < 0.0001. The anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle measures were smaller at first scan in MSA-C compared to all other ataxias; anterior-posterior pons diameter: Exploratory, 19.3 ± 2.6 mm versus 20.7 ± 2.6 mm, Validation, 19.9 ± 2.1 mm versus 21.1 ± 2.1 mm; middle cerebellar peduncle transverse diameter, Exploratory, 12.0 ± 2.6 mm versus 14.3 ±2.1 mm, Validation, 13.6 ± 2.1 mm versus 15.1 ± 1.8 mm, all P < 0.001. The anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle rates of change were faster in MSA-C than in all other ataxias; anterior-posterior pons diameter rates of change: Exploratory, -0.87 ± 0.04 mm/year versus -0.09 ± 0.02 mm/year, Validation, -0.89 ± 0.48 mm/year versus -0.10 ± 0.21 mm/year; middle cerebellar peduncle transverse diameter rates of change: Exploratory, -0.84 ± 0.05 mm/year versus -0.08 ± 0.02 mm/year, Validation, -0.94 ± 0.64 mm/year versus -0.11 ± 0.27 mm/year, all values P < 0.0001. Anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters were indistinguishable between Possible, Probable and Definite MSA-C. The rate of anterior-posterior pons atrophy was linear, correlating with ataxia severity. Using a lower threshold anterior-posterior pons diameter decrease of -0.4 mm/year to balance sensitivity and specificity, area under the curve analysis discriminating MSA-C from other ataxias was 0.94, yielding sensitivity 0.92 and specificity 0.87. For the middle cerebellar peduncle, with threshold decline -0.5 mm/year, area under the curve was 0.90 yielding sensitivity 0.85 and specificity 0.79. The midbrain:pons ratio increased progressively in MSA-C, whereas the middle cerebellar peduncle:pons ratio was almost unchanged. Anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters were smaller in MSA-C than in MSA-P, P < 0.001. We conclude from this 20-year longitudinal clinical and imaging study that anterior-posterior pons and middle cerebellar peduncle diameters are phenotypic imaging biomarkers of MSA-C. In the correct clinical context, an anterior-posterior pons and transverse middle cerebellar peduncle diameter decline of ∼0.8 mm/year is sufficient for and diagnostic of MSA-C.